{"id":8668,"date":"2025-08-18T16:38:10","date_gmt":"2025-08-18T08:38:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/?post_type=article&#038;p=8668"},"modified":"2025-08-18T16:38:10","modified_gmt":"2025-08-18T08:38:10","slug":"rain-rain-go-away-stochastic-model-in-predicting-the-future-rainfall","status":"publish","type":"article","link":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/article\/rain-rain-go-away-stochastic-model-in-predicting-the-future-rainfall\/","title":{"rendered":"Rain, Rain, Go Away: Stochastic Model in Predicting the Future Rainfall"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wpb-content-wrapper\"><p>[vc_row][vc_column width=&#8221;4\/5&#8243; css=&#8221;.asmsj-main-column{padding-bottom:10px !important;}&#8221;][vc_row_inner equal_height=&#8221;yes&#8221; css=&#8221;.asmsj-inner-row{margin-bottom:10px !important;}&#8221;][vc_column_inner][vc_column_text css=&#8221;&#8221;]\t\t\r\n\t\t<div class=\"mdocs\">\r\n\t\t\t<div class=\"mdocs-wrap\"><\/div>\r\n\t\t\t<div class=\"mdocs-container\">\r\n\t\t\t\t<table class=\"table table-hover table-condensed\" id=\"mdocs-list-table\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<thead>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<tr>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<th class=\"mdocs-name\">Name<\/th>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<th class=\"mdocs-downloads\">Downloads<\/th>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<th class=\"mdocs-version\">Version<\/th>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<th class=\"mdocs-author\">Owner<\/th>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<th class=\"mdocs-modified\">Last Updated<\/th>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<th class=\"mdocs-file-size\">File Size<\/th>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/tr>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/thead>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<tbody>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<tr class=\"mdocs-normal\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<td class=\"mdocs-name\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"mdocs-btn-group btn-group\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"mdocs-title-href\" href=\"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/?sdm_process_download=1&#038;download_id=8674\" target=\"_blank\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-content\/plugins\/simple-download-monitor\/images\/pdf.png\" class=\"mdoc-file-type-icon\" alt=\"PDF\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tRain, Rain, Go Away: Stochastic Model in Predicting the Future Rainfall\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/td>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<td class=\"mdocs-downloads\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i class=\"fas fa-cloud-download-alt\" aria-hidden=\"true\" title=\"Downloads\"><\/i>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<em style=\"color: #FF9140;\">320 <small>downloads<\/small><\/em>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/td>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<td class=\"mdocs-version\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i class=\"fa fa-history\" aria-hidden=\"true\" title=\"Version\"><\/i>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<em style=\"color: #0066FF;\">1.0<\/em>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/td>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<td class=\"mdocs-author\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i class=\"fa fa-user\" aria-hidden=\"true\" title=\"Owner\"><\/i>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<em style=\"color: #666;\">ikram<\/em>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/td>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<td class=\"mdocs-modified\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i class=\"fa fa-calendar\" aria-hidden=\"true\" title=\"Last Modified\"><\/i>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<em style=\"color: #990000;\">18-08-2025 15:32<\/em>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/td>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<td class=\"mdocs-file-size\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i class=\"fa fa-database\" aria-hidden=\"true\" title=\"File Size\"><\/i>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<em>681 KB<\/em>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/td>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/tr>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/tbody>\r\n\t\t\t\t<\/table>\r\n\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t<\/div>\r\n\r\n\t\t<div class=\"vc_btn3-container vc_btn3-center vc_custom_1753429848041 vc_do_btn\">\r\n\t\t\t<a class=\"vc_general vc_btn3 vc_btn3-size-md vc_btn3-shape-square vc_btn3-style-flat vc_btn3-block vc_btn3-icon-left vc_btn3-color-grey\" \r\n\t\t\t   href=\"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/?sdm_process_download=1&#038;download_id=8674\" target=\"_blank\">\r\n\t\t\t\t<i class=\"vc_btn3-icon \"><\/i> Download PDF\r\n\t\t\t<\/a>\r\n\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\r\n    <div class=\"asmsj-article-header\">\r\n        <p>ASM Sc. J., 20(2), 2025<\/p>\r\n\t\t<p>Published on August 18, 2025<\/p>\r\n                    <p><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.32802\/asmscj.2025.1581\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.32802\/asmscj.2025.1581<\/a><\/p>\r\n        \r\n                    <p><strong>Author: <\/strong>Shamshimah Samsuddin, Nordiana Rosdi, Noor Hidayah Zainal, Nurul Ain Zailan, Nurul Faqihah Zamri and\u00a0Rose Mayla Omar<\/p>\r\n        \r\n                    <p><strong>Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">This study investigates the use of the Markov Chain (MC) method to forecast future rainfall in Tanah Merah, Kelantan, by observing daily rainfall data and categorising it into five distinct states, denoted as S={1,2,3,4,5}, each representing different levels of rainfall intensity. A structured examination of rainfall transitions between states is made possible by the research&#039;s discrete definitions of the state space and the temporal set. The study reflects the dynamic character of weather patterns by capturing the possibility of changes in rainfall amounts through the creation of a Transition Probability Matrix (TPM) for each month. In addition to forecasting rainfall, the study computes the limiting distribution of the TPMs to create risk matrices for every state. These risk matrices, which are based on recent and past rainfall data, offer a probabilistic evaluation of future flood hazards. The monthly risk matrices provide important insights into flood prediction and disaster preparedness by showing how the likelihood of rainfall in each state can affect the chance of flooding in succeeding months. The study illustrates the potential of the MC technique in enhancing flood risk management in the region and improving rainfall forecasts by utilising the concept of long-run behaviour.<\/p>\r\n        \r\n                    <p><strong>Keywords:<\/strong>\r\n                Flood, Markov chain, Rainfall            <\/p>\r\n            <\/div>\r\n\t\r\n\t\r\n\t\r\n\t<div class=\"asmsj-citation-box\">\r\n        <h3>How to Cite<\/h3>\r\n        <p id=\"citation-text\">\r\n            2025. Rain, Rain, Go Away: Stochastic Model in Predicting the Future Rainfall. <em>ASM Science Journal<\/em>, 20(2), 1-10. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.32802\/asmscj.2025.1581\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.32802\/asmscj.2025.1581<\/a>        <\/p>\r\n\r\n        <div class=\"asmsj-actions\">\r\n            <select id=\"citation-format\">\r\n                <option value=\"apa\">APA<\/option>\r\n                <option value=\"mla\">MLA<\/option>\r\n                <option value=\"chicago\">Chicago<\/option>\r\n                <option value=\"harvard\">Harvard<\/option>\r\n                <option value=\"ieee\">IEEE<\/option>\r\n                <option value=\"vancouver\">Vancouver<\/option>\r\n            <\/select>\r\n\r\n            <button id=\"copy-citation\">Copy<\/button>\r\n            <div id=\"loading-spinner\" class=\"hidden\"><\/div>\r\n        <\/div>\r\n    <\/div>\r\n\r\n    <script>\r\n    jQuery(document).ready(function($) {\r\n        $('#citation-format').change(function() {\r\n            var format = $(this).val();\r\n            var postID = 8668;\r\n            \r\n            $('#loading-spinner').show(); \/\/ Show loading animation\r\n\r\n            $.post(asmsj_ajax.ajaxurl, {\r\n                action: 'generate_citation',\r\n                format: format,\r\n                post_id: postID\r\n            }, function(response) {\r\n                $('#citation-text').html(response);\r\n                $('#loading-spinner').hide(); \/\/ Hide loading animation\r\n            });\r\n        });\r\n\r\n        $('#copy-citation').click(function() {\r\n            var citation = $('#citation-text').text();\r\n            navigator.clipboard.writeText(citation).then(function() {\r\n                alert(\"Citation copied to clipboard!\");\r\n            });\r\n        });\r\n    });\r\n    <\/script>\r\n    [\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/5&#8243;][vc_widget_sidebar sidebar_id=&#8221;sidebar-blog&#8221;][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Shamshimah Samsuddin, Nordiana Rosdi, Noor Hidayah Zainal, Nurul Ain Zailan, Nurul Faqihah Zamri and\u00a0Rose Mayla Omar<br \/>\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.32802\/asmscj.2025.1581<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":827,"featured_media":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[73],"tags":[2707,3834,3476],"issuem_issue":[3806],"class_list":["post-8668","article","type-article","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-research-articles","tag-flood","tag-markov-chain","tag-rainfall","issuem_issue-asm-sc-j-vol-20-no-2-2025"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/8668","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/827"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8668"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/8668\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8697,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/8668\/revisions\/8697"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8668"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8668"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8668"},{"taxonomy":"issuem_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issuem_issue?post=8668"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}