{"id":8760,"date":"2025-09-18T09:56:20","date_gmt":"2025-09-18T01:56:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/?post_type=article&#038;p=8760"},"modified":"2025-09-18T09:56:20","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T01:56:20","slug":"tourist-arrivals-in-malaysia-post-covid-19-a-comparison-between-holt-winters-and-arima-model","status":"publish","type":"article","link":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/article\/tourist-arrivals-in-malaysia-post-covid-19-a-comparison-between-holt-winters-and-arima-model\/","title":{"rendered":"Tourist Arrivals in Malaysia Post-COVID-19: A Comparison Between Holt-Winters and ARIMA Model"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wpb-content-wrapper\"><p>[vc_row][vc_column width=&#8221;4\/5&#8243; css=&#8221;.asmsj-main-column{padding-bottom:10px !important;}&#8221;][vc_row_inner equal_height=&#8221;yes&#8221; css=&#8221;.asmsj-inner-row{margin-bottom:10px !important;}&#8221;][vc_column_inner][vc_column_text css=&#8221;&#8221;]\t\t\r\n\t\t<div class=\"mdocs\">\r\n\t\t\t<div class=\"mdocs-wrap\"><\/div>\r\n\t\t\t<div class=\"mdocs-container\">\r\n\t\t\t\t<table class=\"table table-hover table-condensed\" id=\"mdocs-list-table\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<thead>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<tr>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<th class=\"mdocs-name\">Name<\/th>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<th class=\"mdocs-downloads\">Downloads<\/th>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<th class=\"mdocs-version\">Version<\/th>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<th class=\"mdocs-author\">Owner<\/th>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<th class=\"mdocs-modified\">Last Updated<\/th>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<th class=\"mdocs-file-size\">File Size<\/th>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/tr>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/thead>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<tbody>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<tr class=\"mdocs-normal\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<td class=\"mdocs-name\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"mdocs-btn-group btn-group\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"mdocs-title-href\" href=\"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/?sdm_process_download=1&#038;download_id=8759\" target=\"_blank\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-content\/plugins\/simple-download-monitor\/images\/pdf.png\" class=\"mdoc-file-type-icon\" alt=\"PDF\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tTourist Arrivals in Malaysia Post-COVID-19: A Comparison Between Holt-Winters and ARIMA Model\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/td>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<td class=\"mdocs-downloads\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i class=\"fas fa-cloud-download-alt\" aria-hidden=\"true\" title=\"Downloads\"><\/i>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<em style=\"color: #FF9140;\">356 <small>downloads<\/small><\/em>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/td>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<td class=\"mdocs-version\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i class=\"fa fa-history\" aria-hidden=\"true\" title=\"Version\"><\/i>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<em style=\"color: #0066FF;\">1.0<\/em>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/td>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<td class=\"mdocs-author\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i class=\"fa fa-user\" aria-hidden=\"true\" title=\"Owner\"><\/i>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<em style=\"color: #666;\">ikram<\/em>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/td>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<td class=\"mdocs-modified\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i class=\"fa fa-calendar\" aria-hidden=\"true\" title=\"Last Modified\"><\/i>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<em style=\"color: #990000;\">18-09-2025 09:49<\/em>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/td>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<td class=\"mdocs-file-size\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i class=\"fa fa-database\" aria-hidden=\"true\" title=\"File Size\"><\/i>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<em>399 KB<\/em>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/td>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/tr>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/tbody>\r\n\t\t\t\t<\/table>\r\n\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t<\/div>\r\n\r\n\t\t<div class=\"vc_btn3-container vc_btn3-center vc_custom_1753429848041 vc_do_btn\">\r\n\t\t\t<a class=\"vc_general vc_btn3 vc_btn3-size-md vc_btn3-shape-square vc_btn3-style-flat vc_btn3-block vc_btn3-icon-left vc_btn3-color-grey\" \r\n\t\t\t   href=\"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/?sdm_process_download=1&#038;download_id=8759\" target=\"_blank\">\r\n\t\t\t\t<i class=\"vc_btn3-icon \"><\/i> Download PDF\r\n\t\t\t<\/a>\r\n\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\r\n    <div class=\"asmsj-article-header\">\r\n        <p>ASM Sc. J., 20(2), 2025<\/p>\r\n\t\t<p>Published on September 18, 2025<\/p>\r\n                    <p><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.32802\/asmscj.2025.1719\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.32802\/asmscj.2025.1719<\/a><\/p>\r\n        \r\n                    <p><strong>Author: <\/strong>Norwaziah Mahmud, Nur Syuhada Muhammat Pazil, Nur Aifa Zaiyani Amir Razuan<\/p>\r\n        \r\n                    <p><strong>Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">Tourism is a major contributor to Malaysia&#039;s socioeconomic growth, with visitors&#039; investments contributing to the country&#039;s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). To capitalise on this sector, the government has announced the initiation of the Visit Malaysia 2020 campaign. However, in December 2019, the globe was threatened by the COVID-19 virus, and the first case was quickly identified in Malaysia. The number of cases grew over time, and on 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) proclaimed the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic. COVID-19 has caused substantial damage and severely affected the country&#039;s economy. To ensure the economy can return to normal, a systematic recovery plan must be adopted promptly. Therefore, the focus of this study is to examine the pattern of tourist arrivals before and after the COVID-19 pandemic to forecast tourist arrivals in Malaysia using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving average (ARIMA) and Holt-Winters models. The data on tourist arrivals in Malaysia from January 2018 until June 2022 were obtained from the Tourism Malaysia website. The results of this study reveal that the ARIMA model outperforms the Holt-Winters model, with the ARIMA (1,1,1) model providing the best fit for forecasting tourist arrivals in Malaysia, characterised by the lowest values of Mean Squared Error and Mean Absolute Percent Error. Future research might be conducted on alternative methods linked to the ARIMA model, such as the Fuzzy Seasonal ARIMA model (FSARIMA), or on distinct types of data series.<\/p>\r\n        \r\n                    <p><strong>Keywords:<\/strong>\r\n                ARIMA, COVID-19, forecasting, holt-winters, tourism Malaysia, tourist arrivals            <\/p>\r\n            <\/div>\r\n\t\r\n\t\r\n\t\r\n\t<div class=\"asmsj-citation-box\">\r\n        <h3>How to Cite<\/h3>\r\n        <p id=\"citation-text\">\r\n            2025. Tourist Arrivals in Malaysia Post-COVID-19: A Comparison Between Holt-Winters and ARIMA Model. <em>ASM Science Journal<\/em>, 20(2), 1-9. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.32802\/asmscj.2025.1719\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.32802\/asmscj.2025.1719<\/a>        <\/p>\r\n\r\n        <div class=\"asmsj-actions\">\r\n            <select id=\"citation-format\">\r\n                <option value=\"apa\">APA<\/option>\r\n                <option value=\"mla\">MLA<\/option>\r\n                <option value=\"chicago\">Chicago<\/option>\r\n                <option value=\"harvard\">Harvard<\/option>\r\n                <option value=\"ieee\">IEEE<\/option>\r\n                <option value=\"vancouver\">Vancouver<\/option>\r\n            <\/select>\r\n\r\n            <button id=\"copy-citation\">Copy<\/button>\r\n            <div id=\"loading-spinner\" class=\"hidden\"><\/div>\r\n        <\/div>\r\n    <\/div>\r\n\r\n    <script>\r\n    jQuery(document).ready(function($) {\r\n        $('#citation-format').change(function() {\r\n            var format = $(this).val();\r\n            var postID = 8760;\r\n            \r\n            $('#loading-spinner').show(); \/\/ Show loading animation\r\n\r\n            $.post(asmsj_ajax.ajaxurl, {\r\n                action: 'generate_citation',\r\n                format: format,\r\n                post_id: postID\r\n            }, function(response) {\r\n                $('#citation-text').html(response);\r\n                $('#loading-spinner').hide(); \/\/ Hide loading animation\r\n            });\r\n        });\r\n\r\n        $('#copy-citation').click(function() {\r\n            var citation = $('#citation-text').text();\r\n            navigator.clipboard.writeText(citation).then(function() {\r\n                alert(\"Citation copied to clipboard!\");\r\n            });\r\n        });\r\n    });\r\n    <\/script>\r\n    [\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/5&#8243;][vc_widget_sidebar sidebar_id=&#8221;sidebar-blog&#8221;][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Norwaziah Mahmud, Nur Syuhada Muhammat Pazil, Nur Aifa Zaiyani Amir Razuan<br \/><a href='https:\/\/doi.org\/10.32802\/asmscj.2025.1719'>https:\/\/doi.org\/10.32802\/asmscj.2025.1719<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":827,"featured_media":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[73],"tags":[684,529,169,3872,3871,3870],"issuem_issue":[3806],"class_list":["post-8760","article","type-article","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-research-articles","tag-arima","tag-covid-19","tag-forecasting","tag-holt-winters","tag-tourism-malaysia","tag-tourist-arrivals","issuem_issue-asm-sc-j-vol-20-no-2-2025"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/8760","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/827"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8760"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/8760\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8763,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/8760\/revisions\/8763"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8760"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8760"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8760"},{"taxonomy":"issuem_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issuem_issue?post=8760"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}