{"id":8799,"date":"2025-10-16T11:26:54","date_gmt":"2025-10-16T03:26:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/?post_type=article&#038;p=8799"},"modified":"2025-10-16T11:26:54","modified_gmt":"2025-10-16T03:26:54","slug":"towards-carbon-neutrality-a-novel-stirpat-xgboost-shap-framework-for-provincial-energy-transition-prediction-in-china","status":"publish","type":"article","link":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/article\/towards-carbon-neutrality-a-novel-stirpat-xgboost-shap-framework-for-provincial-energy-transition-prediction-in-china\/","title":{"rendered":"Towards Carbon Neutrality: A Novel STIRPAT- XGBoost-SHAP Framework for Provincial Energy Transition Prediction in China"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wpb-content-wrapper\"><p>[vc_row][vc_column width=&#8221;4\/5&#8243; css=&#8221;.asmsj-main-column{padding-bottom:10px !important;}&#8221;][vc_row_inner equal_height=&#8221;yes&#8221; css=&#8221;.asmsj-inner-row{margin-bottom:10px !important;}&#8221;][vc_column_inner][vc_column_text css=&#8221;&#8221;]\t\t\r\n\t\t<div class=\"mdocs\">\r\n\t\t\t<div class=\"mdocs-wrap\"><\/div>\r\n\t\t\t<div class=\"mdocs-container\">\r\n\t\t\t\t<table class=\"table table-hover table-condensed\" id=\"mdocs-list-table\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<thead>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<tr>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<th class=\"mdocs-name\">Name<\/th>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<th class=\"mdocs-downloads\">Downloads<\/th>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<th class=\"mdocs-version\">Version<\/th>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<th class=\"mdocs-author\">Owner<\/th>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<th class=\"mdocs-modified\">Last Updated<\/th>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<th class=\"mdocs-file-size\">File Size<\/th>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/tr>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/thead>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<tbody>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<tr class=\"mdocs-normal\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<td class=\"mdocs-name\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"mdocs-btn-group btn-group\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"mdocs-title-href\" href=\"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/?sdm_process_download=1&#038;download_id=8798\" target=\"_blank\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-content\/plugins\/simple-download-monitor\/images\/pdf.png\" class=\"mdoc-file-type-icon\" alt=\"PDF\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tTowards Carbon Neutrality: A Novel STIRPAT- XGBoost-SHAP Framework for Provincial Energy Transition Prediction in China\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/td>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<td class=\"mdocs-downloads\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i class=\"fas fa-cloud-download-alt\" aria-hidden=\"true\" title=\"Downloads\"><\/i>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<em style=\"color: #FF9140;\">385 <small>downloads<\/small><\/em>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/td>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<td class=\"mdocs-version\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i class=\"fa fa-history\" aria-hidden=\"true\" title=\"Version\"><\/i>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<em style=\"color: #0066FF;\">1.0<\/em>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/td>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<td class=\"mdocs-author\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i class=\"fa fa-user\" aria-hidden=\"true\" title=\"Owner\"><\/i>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<em style=\"color: #666;\">ikram<\/em>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/td>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<td class=\"mdocs-modified\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i class=\"fa fa-calendar\" aria-hidden=\"true\" title=\"Last Modified\"><\/i>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<em style=\"color: #990000;\">16-10-2025 11:20<\/em>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/td>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<td class=\"mdocs-file-size\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i class=\"fa fa-database\" aria-hidden=\"true\" title=\"File Size\"><\/i>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<em>788 KB<\/em>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/td>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/tr>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/tbody>\r\n\t\t\t\t<\/table>\r\n\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t<\/div>\r\n\r\n\t\t<div class=\"vc_btn3-container vc_btn3-center vc_custom_1753429848041 vc_do_btn\">\r\n\t\t\t<a class=\"vc_general vc_btn3 vc_btn3-size-md vc_btn3-shape-square vc_btn3-style-flat vc_btn3-block vc_btn3-icon-left vc_btn3-color-grey\" \r\n\t\t\t   href=\"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/?sdm_process_download=1&#038;download_id=8798\" target=\"_blank\">\r\n\t\t\t\t<i class=\"vc_btn3-icon \"><\/i> Download PDF\r\n\t\t\t<\/a>\r\n\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\r\n    <div class=\"asmsj-article-header\">\r\n        <p>ASM Sc. J., 20(2), 2025<\/p>\r\n\t\t<p>Published on October 16, 2025<\/p>\r\n                    <p><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.32802\/asmscj.2025.0171\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.32802\/asmscj.2025.0171<\/a><\/p>\r\n        \r\n                    <p><strong>Author: <\/strong>Qian Lu, Khai Wah Khaw, XinYing Chew, Wai Chung Yeong and Wei Chien Ng<\/p>\r\n        \r\n                    <p><strong>Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">China&#039;s commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060 demands accurate and interpretable forecasting tools at the provincial level. This study develops and validates a hybrid framework integrating the STIRPAT model, XGBoost machine learning, and SHAP interpretability analysis to forecast coal and  total  energy  consumption  across  six  representative  Chinese  provinces  (2005 -2021).  The STIRPAT  model reveals  industrial  structure  as  the  dominant  driver  of  coal dependence,  while SHAP confirms structural consistency and highlights nonlinear effects of urbani sation and income. The  XGBoost  model  achieves  competitive  forecasting  performance  (Mean  Absolute  Percentage Error  (MAPE):  5.26%  for  coal  and  3.02%  for  total  energy)  and  effectively  captures  regional disparities  in  coal  transition  trajectories.  These  results  support  differentiated  and  structurally grounded policy interventions, offering practical guidance for subnational energy planning under China&#039;s  dual-carbon  strategy. The  framework  offers  broad  applicability  to  other  structurally diverse and data-constrained contexts.<\/p>\r\n        \r\n                    <p><strong>Keywords:<\/strong>\r\n                China, coal consumption, energy transition, green finance, SHAP, STIRPAT, subnational forecasting, XGBoost            <\/p>\r\n            <\/div>\r\n\t\r\n\t\r\n\t\r\n\t<div class=\"asmsj-citation-box\">\r\n        <h3>How to Cite<\/h3>\r\n        <p id=\"citation-text\">\r\n            2025. Towards Carbon Neutrality: A Novel STIRPAT- XGBoost-SHAP Framework for Provincial Energy Transition Prediction in China. <em>ASM Science Journal<\/em>, 20(2), 1-12. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.32802\/asmscj.2025.0171\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.32802\/asmscj.2025.0171<\/a>        <\/p>\r\n\r\n        <div class=\"asmsj-actions\">\r\n            <select id=\"citation-format\">\r\n                <option value=\"apa\">APA<\/option>\r\n                <option value=\"mla\">MLA<\/option>\r\n                <option value=\"chicago\">Chicago<\/option>\r\n                <option value=\"harvard\">Harvard<\/option>\r\n                <option value=\"ieee\">IEEE<\/option>\r\n                <option value=\"vancouver\">Vancouver<\/option>\r\n            <\/select>\r\n\r\n            <button id=\"copy-citation\">Copy<\/button>\r\n            <div id=\"loading-spinner\" class=\"hidden\"><\/div>\r\n        <\/div>\r\n    <\/div>\r\n\r\n    <script>\r\n    jQuery(document).ready(function($) {\r\n        $('#citation-format').change(function() {\r\n            var format = $(this).val();\r\n            var postID = 8799;\r\n            \r\n            $('#loading-spinner').show(); \/\/ Show loading animation\r\n\r\n            $.post(asmsj_ajax.ajaxurl, {\r\n                action: 'generate_citation',\r\n                format: format,\r\n                post_id: postID\r\n            }, function(response) {\r\n                $('#citation-text').html(response);\r\n                $('#loading-spinner').hide(); \/\/ Hide loading animation\r\n            });\r\n        });\r\n\r\n        $('#copy-citation').click(function() {\r\n            var citation = $('#citation-text').text();\r\n            navigator.clipboard.writeText(citation).then(function() {\r\n                alert(\"Citation copied to clipboard!\");\r\n            });\r\n        });\r\n    });\r\n    <\/script>\r\n    [\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/5&#8243;][vc_widget_sidebar sidebar_id=&#8221;sidebar-blog&#8221;][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Qian Lu, Khai Wah Khaw, XinYing Chew, Wai Chung Yeong and Wei Chien Ng<br \/><a href='https:\/\/doi.org\/10.32802\/asmscj.2025.0171'>https:\/\/doi.org\/10.32802\/asmscj.2025.0171<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":827,"featured_media":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[73],"tags":[3893,3890,3889,3892,3888,3886,3891,3887],"issuem_issue":[3806],"class_list":["post-8799","article","type-article","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-research-articles","tag-china","tag-coal-consumption","tag-energy-transition","tag-green-finance","tag-shap","tag-stirpat","tag-subnational-forecasting","tag-xgboost","issuem_issue-asm-sc-j-vol-20-no-2-2025"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/8799","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/827"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8799"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/8799\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8803,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/8799\/revisions\/8803"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8799"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8799"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8799"},{"taxonomy":"issuem_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademisains.gov.my\/asmsj\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issuem_issue?post=8799"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}